Precision Money Management
August 12, 2008
This article describes the model of a natural relationship between trading system performance, trade position size, stop loss settings and profit goals. The model consists of algebraic equations that specify the trade size and stop loss settings needed to meet profit goals over a specified time period for any consistently used trading system for which historical performance data is available.
Most of us think of a trailing stop loss when the term money management is mentioned. William O’Neil in his book, "How to Make Money in Stocks", used a value from 7 to 8%. Many stock advisories, including Stansberry and Associates, Outstanding Investments and the Oxford Club, typically use a 25% trailing stop loss. Option advisories use still higher values in the 35% range, as is done by Michael Lombardi, and up to as high as 50%, as used by Dr. Stephen Cooper. Trailing stops are typically used along with a maximum percentage of capital per trade to avoid large portfolio draw-downs in the event that a given trade goes badly.
Stock Market Diversification
August 3, 2008
In one of my previous articles (Investing in the stock market -9 powerful tips), tip number one was:
1. Do not spread your money too thin.
My friend has a little over $200,000 invested in the stock market through 27 different Mutual funds. In my opinion, 27 Mutual funds is 27 too many collecting load fees, management fees, commission fees, operating and advertising fees. Diversity is important, but just as important is over-diversification. Also, in my opinion, $200,000 should not be put into more than 12 stocks, let alone 27 different Mutual funds.
If I may, I would like to explain where I’m coming from by stating that tip.
On October 16, 1990 the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded 3 men each a third of the Nobel Peace Prize for their work in the theory of financial economics ? Harry Markowitz, Merton Miller and William Sharpe.
Harry Markowitz’s work involved the theory of portfolio choice. (This in layman’s terms was the introduction of a diversified portfolio to help offset the uncertainty and risk of investing in the stock market. Harry Markowitz has been labeled the ‘Father of Diversification’.
Tips to Finding Other People?s Simple Trading Plans
July 26, 2008
Did you know you can make money (and a lot of it) by simply modeling someone else’s trading plan? Yes, it is true. Unbelievably, there are many of trading gurus doing it RIGHT NOW.
All you do is model your system on an already tested and proven trading plan.
If you are new to trading, or even if you have been trading a while, this is a secret very few successful traders talk about. You see, many successful traders diversify their trading float by trading other peoples tested systems - because it is so easy to do.
There are several reasons to start construction of your own trading system by stealing or borrowing another trading system’s ideas and concepts.
FIRST, as I said, it is easy. There are some pretty good trading systems out there. Some are free and some are very expensive. The costs of these systems are not an indication of the value of the system. The problem with some trading systems is that they might not work for you. Now I am not talking about out right dishonesty, which is a big problem when trading. Rather, I am talking about your ability to effectively trade with the system that you are using or buying.
Losses, not Profits, will Stop You from Trading in the Market
July 18, 2008
Should the market turn against you, it is important that you design a system that will produce as much loss as you are prepared to take. This loss, known as drawdown, is the maximum amount by which your trading float will temporarily drop at anytime. Doing this in advance, will help you avoid nasty surprises in the future. This gives you the confidence to continue trading when the good times start once more.
It is very unlikely that you will stop trading if your system is trading profitably. However, if you are in a trading year that takes too big a loss, you are likely to stop trading, even if your system has been tested and shown to make a profit over a longer time period. Therefore, design a system based on the risk you are prepared to take which includes a budget for your drawdown.
So how does one pick the best formula for your drawdown time? I will rephrase this question. How many losses in a row should you allow for?
First, I will use the simple example of tossing a coin. If I tossed a coin and it landed “Heads Up” 10 times in a row, are you surprised? However, if I tossed the coin 800 times, your outlook on the results are different.
The Secret Art of Backtesting
July 8, 2008
If you have not back tested your trading system, you might as well trade with your eyes close.
In fact, whatever technical analysis criterion you use to trade with, be it moving averages, candle sticks, volatility breakouts, fibonacci retracements or any other trading system you have devised you’re going to need to back test your trading system thoroughly and objectively in order to remove any possible doubt about it’s capability.
To remove any self-doubt you need to thoroughly back test or simulate your trading system in such away that it matches the conditions under which it will be traded. Once you have established that you have a reliable and robust trading system only then will you be confident in trading your system.
When trading what is the question in most traders’ mind?
To answer this question I shall quote the introduction from Chapter 8 Back Testing of Mark Jurik’s book Computerized Trading:
Will my trading strategy be profitable? After having gone through the arduous process of crafting a trading strategy, these are the questions you must ask yourself. The ability to answer these questions are the great promises that back testing holds out for all traders. A successful back testing procedure will greatly reduce the probability that you will begin trading with either an unprofitable strategy or one that does not meet your expectations. By adopting a sound and rigorous back testing approach, you will:
What is a Trading Plan ? and Why You Need One?
June 29, 2008
How do you make money without picking tops and bottoms?
I am glad you asked…
Successful trading is similar to a successful business. You see, every successful business has a business plan so do successful traders. The astute reader knows that, successful traders have a systematic way they approach the market.
The definition of a trading system is a trader’s business plan; it defines your approach to trading…
1. A properly constructed trading system will leave no room for human judgment 2. It will define your actions given any circumstances that may arise. 3. It is a distinct set of rules 4. Which instructs the trader what to do and when to do it.
The importance of this trading plan cannot be understated. Without a consistent set of guiding principles to govern your trading decisions, most traders will hop from one trade to the next, guided by emotion or hysteria.
I firmly believe that not having a plan, you are doomed to fail.
Trading systems themselves will come in many varieties, although they all take the guesswork out of trading. A trading system will determine for you when to buy or sell. System trading has proven itself consistently to be the most effective long-term trading technique.
Money, Insanity and Wall Street
June 22, 2008
Money: the most charged word in the planet. It means something to everyone. For some, money means a blessing, for others it means a disaster.
We all have heard stories of people who have lost their fortunes or their life savings trading in the stock market; but, we don’t hear much of people who are currently trading and how their lives are turning upside down.
For some, the process of trading is like the development of an addiction, it starts with expectations, with hopes of a relief, with desire to control money or acquire more of it. Soon, it starts turning into an obsession. Then, it controls the thoughts, emotions and feelings. Next, there is no longer consciousness about the external life, everything around turns into a distraction from the focus of trading, and those distractions must be eliminated.
This is where relationships end, where jobs are terminated, and the mind is totally controlled by the obsession of trading. Whether money is made or not, is not the issue. The issue is how, at what cost is made? Is the cost a family, a spouse, a significant relationship, sanity, peace of mind, health?? Maybe the cost is not worthy.
How To Beat The Mutual Fund Companies At Their Own Game
June 13, 2008
You’d have had to be living on a desert island with no TV, newspaper or internet connection to have missed hearing about the great mutual fund scandal of 2003.
The issue was that some mutual fund companies allowed certain hedge funds to engage in after-hours trading, sometimes incorrectly referred to as market timing. Unfortunately, some companies have used the confusion about the term “market timing” to further their own cause. How?
They have used this issue to pretty much ban all forms of trading their funds, and some companies are imposing hefty short-term redemption fees-penalties for all intents and purposes-in the name of avoiding impropriety. But the real idea behind it all is: Buy our fund and never sell it!
These companies advocate a stubborn Buy & Hold philosophy despite the devastating effects that approach had on investors’ portfolios during the recent bear market. Performance is immaterial to them-they want your money in their fund whether it’s going up or down.
With all of the negative press over the months you’d think that mutual fund companies would have cleaned up their act and started giving more consideration to the individual investor. Not so.
The Secret Method to Selecting a Winning Trading System
June 5, 2008
Every successful trader has a winning system. There are of course, as many systems out there, as there are traders. Some systems get you to buy on strength and sell on weakness others do the opposite.
Some investors succeed as value investors , a la Warren Buffet ; others make their millions in momentum trading . I have even heard of an astrologist who uses the stars to trade profitably. Although, there are a variety of methods, the point I am trying to illustrate here is this: there are many ways to profit from the markets, but you ultimately must devise a system that is your own, because the personalization will act as a motivational discipline to stick with the plan.
There is however, one common element amongst all successful traders…they have a systematic way they approach the market. This approach is unique. In reality, no two people have exactly the same amount of money, tolerance for risk, personality, time or experience. Therefore, the key to success is to design a system that is suited for you.
Psychology ? How to Reduce Negative Thoughts Relating to Trading?
May 28, 2008
The thinking process of the brain relating to the psychology of trading involves:
– Beliefs — Feelings — Values — Dispositions and — Faith
The positive or negative energy brings power to a person’s actions, which ultimately determines whether a person is a winner or a loser. You can change for the better or for the worst. The old saying goes: For as a man thinks in his heart so he is.
— Trading is the most difficult money making skill to master, because the market represents the aspects of people and life.
It is necessary to scratch the surface and explain what psychology means and how it relates to trading. Without doing so, you will not understand why this element is important to your trading plan.
The psychology aspects of people are separated into two categories:
1. Believers (the first category) who support the belief that something in the realms of other dimensions in the universe exist and 2. Non-believers (the second category) who are convinced that reality is the only dimension of life.
