Dollar Cost Averaging
March 5, 2010
Dollar cost averaging is one of the most popular ideas in the investment community. Everyone seems to like it and it has become a watchword among stock and mutual fund brokers. If it is properly done you will make money, if not you will lose money or at best stay even. Let’s examine the basic premise behind this method of investing.
You decide to buy shares in Mouse Trap, Ltd.(symbol CHZ), a computer company that produces sophisticated hardware. The shares are now selling for $40 and you want to purchase approximately $1,000 worth each month. Today you buy 25 shares. Next month the stock has gone up to $43 so your purchase is 23 shares (I’m rounding these off because you can’t buy fractions of shares.) The following month it drops back to $40, you get 25 more. Then at $37, you have 27 shares. At $35, 28 shares. At $32, 31 shares. You have invested $6,000 and have 159 shares at an average cost of $37.75.
With the current price of the Mouse Trap at $32 you have a loss of almost $1,000 (159 X $32 = $5,088). The object of buying any stock or mutual fund is to have more money than you put in, not more shares and less money. Who came up with this anyway?
Does Japan Matter?
February 24, 2010
For the last 12 years we have seen the Japanese stock market slowly sinking from a high of 38,000 to about 8,000, more than a 75% loss and very close to the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Why should we care about their stock market?
Please understand that the stock market price is a reflection of the overall economy of a country. Every major country has a stock market index related to their economic health. Today almost every one of them has been in negative numbers for the past 3 years. If you believe the numbers we are in a worldwide recession and the trend is still down. That means we can see further slowing of the world economic health. So what? Well, it could be the difference in your having a job or not having one.
Japan used to think that an unemployment number of 2% was terrible. It is now running about 5%. So, fewer people are working. Why should you care? Japan is our second largest customer for U.S. produced goods. If less people are working than there are less yen to buy American goods. Japanese businesses won’t have as much money to buy new equipment much of which is purchased here. What happens there could be a reflection of what could happen here.
Dividends
February 17, 2010
When is a dividend not a dividend?
The latest thing “conservative” brokers are preaching these days is to buy stocks that pay dividends. Everyone likes dividends. I know I do, but when Wall Street tells me something I am automatically suspicious because they lie to me every day. Is this a new scam? Let’s take a look.
When you buy a bond or a CD at the bank it pays interest and is a real dividend. You might get a check every month, quarter or annually or receive a credit to your account. The amount of your principle (what you paid for it) remains the same. Yes, that is a true dividend.
Companies make big splashes about raising their dividend. It was 50 cents per share, but we have raised it to $1.00. Big deal. Yes, you will receive a check and at least you know the company has cash available to pay you. That is an indication the company is in good financial condition, but there have been many of the big names on the NYSE that have continued dividends even when they have lost money. How can that be?
Diversification
February 9, 2010
Wall Street’s watchword has always been diversification, but what does it mean and why do they say it?
The standard Wall Street definition is flexible because each broker or financial planner will vary the portfolio based on your age and income. They say that the younger you are the more risk you should take and the older you are the less risk. They design a group of individual stocks, mutual funds and bonds to fit your personal profile and inclination toward risk.
For a young guy under age 35 they will put you into more high flyer type stocks, hardly any mutual funds and no bonds. As you go over 40 they start adding bonds to your mix and nearing retirement you will find a huge portion in bonds. Their goal is to have your money fully invested at all times and hope for a return of about 12% annually.
Dispelling Illusions of the Stock Market
February 1, 2010
How can you dispel an illusion unless you look directly at it? The magician distracts the eye with one hand while he does his manipulation with the other. You are looking in the wrong place and not seeing what is actually happening.
Wall Street has mastered this move even beyond the wildest dreams of Houdini. Investors have become so mesmerized by the smoke and mirrors that they believe the large brokerage houses are telling them the truth.
One of their master distractions has you believing that research is necessary to be able to pick a winning stock or mutual fund. All research is facts and figures which is nothing more than disinformation. Think. That long report by some analyst came from sources available to anyone and everyone, therefore, it is worthless. If everyone knows it then all that information is already reflected in the current price of the stock.
Just because you have information and it seems so good that doesn’t mean the equity price is going to go up. Those beautiful pink, green and yellow tout sheets sent to you by some broker have you looking in the wrong place just as the magician does while he is picking your pocket. Sound familiar?
Investment Discipline
January 23, 2010
One of the great “secrets” of successful people is discipline and it doesn’t make any difference whether it is manufacturing, processing, servicing or investing in the stock market.
Before you can have that discipline you must have a successful plan and stick with it. If the method you use does not work or results in smaller profits it should be abandoned and a better one found. For the average investor the plans laid out by Wall Street do not work and over the long run you will lose money. Actually you will make a very small percentage, but the return will be mitigated due to ongoing inflation. The great majority of investors believe that an annual return of 10% or more is to be expected when actually it is much less and there will be periods when there will be almost no return at all.
Returns can be increased greatly if the investor will learn not to follow the 3 great lies of Maul Street. They are Buy and Hold, Dollar Cost Average and Do Research. These lies have been told so often that they have become conventional wisdom.
Direction
January 14, 2010
It is difficult to make money in a bull market, but what do you do when you are in a bear market? In what direction should you go not only to make money but to protect what you have from loss?
Almost immediately investors think what should I buy that will help me reach my financial goals? This answer may not be the one you will like. It is really not important what you buy as long as you know the rules of the game - the stock market game.
Rule One. You must know the general trend of the market. Is it going up or is it going down? You don’t know and worse yet you don’t know who does. There are many who do and you can be one of them if you wish, but you must also be willing to put aside the conventional wisdom of Wall Street otherwise known as lies. They tell you that you cannot time the market. You can and it is easy. I have been doing it for almost 20 years and so have many of my friends. Unfortunately, brokerage companies do not want you to learn this simple technique to protect your investments.
Investment Research - The Dalbar Study
January 5, 2010
Very few people, even professionals, have heard of the Dalbar Study that originated in 1995. Its purpose is to determine the profitability of trading for the small investor of mutual funds. Their results are even worse than I thought.
The BuyNHolders will love the results as it “proves” that buying and holding is better than trying to switch to so-called “hot” funds. My readers know I think that mindless buy and hold is a guaranteed loser - and I can prove it.
During the greatest bull market of all time from 1984 to December 2002 the study came up with an annualized return of 2.57% compared to 12.22% for those who bought and held an S&P500 index fund. These dummies did not even keep up with inflation. The reason was they were switching from fund to fund after it had made its major move and they had no exit strategy if it did not make money.
I would guess it that they paid commissions which immediately put them in the hole. My recommendation is never to buy anything except a no-load mutual fund that does not have a redemption fee.
Traders, Defend Against the Dreaded Death Spiral.
December 27, 2009
It has often been said that there is only two ways to get hurt really bad on a stock trade, getting caught in a “death spiral” by not using DTM: Decisive Trade Management in the way of stop loses and having a stock halted on you. Halts you have zero control over. Death spirals are of your own making if you do not practice the use of stop loses.
Very simply stated Decisive Trade Management is keeping a stock form moving to far against you when the trade goes bad. It is not impossible to have 5 or 6 out of 10 trades lose money and still be profitable for the net of the total 10 trades. What you must do is keep your loses small and manageable and try to maximize you winners. This is done with the proper use of Trading Stops and a strict discipline in using them.
Capital Preservation
It is my firm belief that capital preservation is one of, if not the single most important thing a trader has to concentrate on. It is also my belief that it is always better to error on the side of safety or caution, in general this all comes under DTM: Decisive Trade Management.
Investing in Dividend Paying Stocks
December 19, 2009
I was recently interviewed for a press release through a financial question and answer format. One of the questions asked of me in the interview was:
Where do you think the stock market is headed over the next five years?
My Answer!
Charles M. O’Melia: No one knows! There is an old Chinese proverb that goes something like this: "He, who could foresee events 3 days in advance, would be rich for thousands of years." On a long-term basis I have only witnessed expansion and progress. I believe that to be the nature of our American economy and our American way of life. And as our economy goes, so goes the stock market and I see no reason to change that belief.
Who would have thought the expansion in China would generate 5 billion dollars of business for GE? The US companies listed on the New York stock exchange have the ability to profit throughout the global expansion of business around the world. And, an investor can profit without the necessity of having to own an overseas fund or companies to profit.
